Italy won the qualifying round 3-2
Italy defeated Poland 3-2 (25-17, 23-25, 21-25, 25-20, 15-11) when they met in the second week of the qualifying round.
However, as the score shows, it was a match that either team could have won. In particular, Poland had changed about half of their bench members from this point onwards, so in any case, the results of the qualifying rounds should only be used as a reference.
Furthermore, the two countries have a 50-50 record in official matches against each other since 2022, after the Tokyo Olympics, with four wins and four losses. Therefore, this final will undoubtedly be a heated match.
Toshiki's match predictions
Italy has a slight advantage
Personally, I'm rooting for Poland, but I think Italy has the slight advantage this time around.
As mentioned above, Poland's OP Sasak and Italy's OH Micheletto both have impressive point scorers.
However, looking at the construction of Poland's S. Komenda up to this point, the set is biased towards the side, and there are very few attacks from the center of the court such as quick or pipe. I think there were zero attacks in the semi-finals during the rally.
On the other hand, Italy's S. Giannelli, while centering around OH Micheletto, is able to develop attacks that effectively spread out across the attacking area.
When Slovenia took a set from Italy in the semi-finals, their pipe attack was key, but monotonous attacks are easy prey for high-level blockers.
Poland also has concerns about its outside hitters.
First of all, OH Leon's serve is still strong, but he was unable to make the most of his attacks in this final round. His attack effectiveness rate was 0% in the quarterfinals and -10% in the semifinals, which were terrible numbers.
And OH Fornal twisted his left ankle when landing in the middle of the second set of the semifinals. He received first aid immediately after and continued playing, so it doesn't seem to have been too serious, but he went to the bench for the third set as a precaution.
おそらく決勝では彼に代わってOHセメニウクがスタメン起用されると思う。もちろんOHセメニウクも一流選手で、日本戦とブラジル戦ともにパフォーマンスは素晴らしかったが、それでも選手がひとり欠けたことへの不安は拭えない。
Meanwhile, Italy's outside hitters OH Micheletto and OH Lavia are injury-free and stable on both offense and defense, and they also have OH Botolo, who performed well in the qualifying round match against Poland, and OH Pollo, who is always extremely stable no matter when he plays.
Italy also has better experience in terms of opposites and middle blockers overall.
So I think Italy has a slight advantage.
However, I would like to add that Poland's OP Sasak are in such great form in this final round that they have the potential to overturn this prediction lol.
Match Schedule for Sunday, August 3rd
*Japan time notation
3rd place match: 16:00
Brazil vs Slovenia
Finals: 8:00 PM
Italy vs Poland
*Only the final match will be streamed on U-NEXT▼
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Photo: FIVB
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