The opening of the Tokyo Olympics is just around the corner! The first match of the men's volleyball team will start on the 24th (Sat). Just before the start of the Olympics, I would like to make some predictions about the results of the qualifying pool and the final tournament, adding my own thoughts and hopes (lol).
But before that, let me give you a brief explanation of the format of this tournament.
Tokyo Olympics Indoor Volleyball Tournament Format
The tournament format is as follows:
- There are 12 participating countries
- Up to 12 players can be registered, including the libero.
- The preliminary round will be held in two pools of six teams each.
- The ranking in the preliminary round is decided by the number of wins. In the case of a tie, the team with the higher points, set rate, and point rate will be ranked higher.
- The top four teams from each pool advance to the finals
- In the quarterfinals, the winners of each pool will play against the fourth-placed team in the other pool, and the opponents of the second- and third-placed teams will be decided by drawing lots. However, they will not play against teams in the same pool.
- If they win the quarterfinals, they will advance to the semifinals and final or third place playoff.
Therefore, the first condition is to finish within the top four in the qualifying round, and if they are aiming to win a medal, they will need to finish in third place or higher and pass the qualifying round so as to avoid facing the first place team in the opposing group in the quarterfinals.
In addition, information about the players on each team (age, height, highest achievement, club affiliation, etc.) is summarized in the article below.
Now, let's move on to predicting the results for Pool A.
Qualifying Pool A
Team (World ranking in parentheses)
- Poland (2)
- Italy(9)
- Canada (10)
- Japan (11)
- Iran (12)
- Venezuela (33)
Match Predictions
Ranking
- Italy
- Poland
- Japan
- Canada
------------------ - Iran
- Venezuela
I'm sure Poland and Italy will come in first and second, but I'm not sure which team will finish first. Italy didn't send out a senior team to the Nations League this year, so there's nothing to use as a reference. The general prediction is that Poland, led by Kubiak, is probably stronger, but although Italy hasn't won since the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, they have advanced to the semi-finals in six consecutive tournaments, and many of the members of the silver medal team from the last Rio Olympics, such as Zaitsev and Juantorena, are still there. On the other hand, Poland has been successful in many tournaments since the 21st century, but they have always lost in the quarter-finals at the Olympics. This time, Italy seems to have a good chance from the qualifiers, so I had them win (laughs).
The question is who will come in 3rd and 4th. Japan, Canada, and Iran are all tied with two wins each, making it a close race. These three teams also had one win and one loss in the Nations League this year, so I think it's quite possible that the same situation will occur at the Olympics. Among them, Japan placed third, due to home advantage, personal desire, and the hope that Nishida Yuto will make a full comeback. The second match against Canada and the fifth match against Iran will be the real key. In my prediction, I didn't let Canada win, but in the actual match, I wonder if they can get back at the Nations League, and if Nishida's serve will be on fire like in the 2019 World Cup. It's a match I'm really looking forward to. The aforementioned Italy vs. Poland is on the same date as the 26th (Monday), so it will be rough on this day (lol).
Venezuela might be able to win one set at some point. If they can, it will probably be in their first match against Japan.
Qualifying Pool B
Team (World ranking in parentheses)
- Brazil (1)
- Russia (3)
- France(4)
- America (5)
- Argentina (8)
- Tunisia (16)
Match Predictions
Ranking
- Brazil
- France
- America
- Russia
------------------ - Argentina
- Tunisia
The first place winner is Brazil, who also won this year's Nations League. They lost to France in the qualifying rounds in the Nations League, but they should be at full throttle from the qualifying rounds for the Tokyo Olympics. Brazil is normally strong, but they seem to be particularly strong in tournaments in Japan. I'm sure they will. Second place is France. They were unexpectedly eliminated in the qualifying rounds at the last Rio Olympics, but in this tournament, they will show good movement from the qualifying rounds based on their mistakes from the last time. Also, until the last tournament, France was a starting volleyball team with an unreliable bench, but over the past five years, they have become a team that can withstand a collapse in the starting lineup by increasing the depth of their players. I'm looking forward to it.
As for the 3rd place and below, I think there is no doubt that Tunisia will be in a similar position to Venezuela in Pool A. Argentina also qualified in the last tournament in first place, but I don't think they will do as well this time. So I predict that the United States and Russia will be in 3rd and 4th place. Among them, I wrote that the United States lost Russell, a member of the Rio bronze medal team, due to injury, but the young Defalco looked good in the Nations League, so I think they can do well. On the other hand, Russia is missing Muserskiy, a symbol of Russian volleyball, due to injury, and the two setters who do not have much international experience are a bit of a concern. The ranking was decided by that difference.
English 
Japanese